Khamenei declares the end of 'strategic patience' as Iran strikes Israel
Will the genocidal Israelis and their Western backers pay heed?
When Iran launched its retaliatory strikes against Israel on April 13-14 for the attack on its Damascus consulate earlier that month, it was widely perceived as a message more than an attack. The attack, which was announced in advance and took hours for the swarm of drones and missiles to land inside Israel, was the Persians conveying to the genocidal Israelis that they would no longer hold back if attacked and that Tel Aviv was well within Tehran’s reach.
Iran’s second retaliatory attack on October 1 made the assertions of the first attack manifest. This time there were no half measures. The Persians launched around 200 ballistic missiles (some accounts put the number at 400) on Israeli military targets and achieved direct hits, scorching Zionist military bases at Netzarim, Nevatim, and Tel Nof, among other strategic sites. Iran claimed that 90 percent of its projectiles hit their intended targets while the Zionists claimed the opposite, but still vowed revenge. America’s genocidal President Joe Biden appeared to back the Israeli claim when he said that “the attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”
What was Iran’s retaliation for?
The Iranian attack — which they named Operation True Promise 2 — was a response to the Israeli assassinations of Hamas’s politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh inside Tehran, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian army’s liaison in Lebanon Abbas Nilforoushan during the barbaric bombing of Dahiye on September 27.
Iran was well within its rights to attack the genocidal Israelis, as Iran’s Mission to the UN laid out:
Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime, which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been duly carried out.
The statement ended with a strong warning for the Zionists:
Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. Regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime.
Revealing a change in the Iranian course while dealing with the US and its Zionist vassal, an Iranian official told Al Jazeera that Tehran has let Washington know that “the phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended.”
Iran has been at the receiving end of egregious crimes by the US and Israel. Donald Trump ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and it was later revealed that the Israelis played a huge part in his killing. Iran has also lost many of its nuclear scientists (so many that there is a Wikipedia page listing them all) at the hands of Zionist assassins inside Iran. The Zionists killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh with an AI-operated gun in November 2020.
But true to their Persian heritage, the Iranians exercised restraint despite dealing with foes that show zero regard for rules of engagement.
Now the Rubicon has been crossed.
Why did Iran attack now?
Haniyeh was assassinated on July 31. Iran promised a response soon after his killing but there was no retaliation for over two months, leading many to speculate that the Iranians will hold off on it.
However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently revealed that Iran were promised a ceasefire in Gaza by the US and its European allies if they held back from retaliating against Israel for Haniyeh’s killing, but true to their deceitful character, they reneged on that promise, making Iranian retaliation inevitable. At the time of his murder, Haniyeh was Iran’s state guest for the inauguration ceremony of Pezeshkian, making it an even bigger blow for the Iranians to take.
Furthermore, the killing of a figure like Nasrallah was never going to go unpunished. To compound matters further, the attack that killed Nasrallah also got Nilforoushan, a top Iranian commander who was in the same meeting as the Hezbollah chief.
If such egregious violations of international law went unpunished, it would have only increased Israeli impunity — not that they need any invitation to violate any law, no matter how sacrosanct. In such a scenario, it is not beyond the pale to speculate that the Zionists were likely planning to eliminate the Iranian leader Ali Khameini as well. Just a day before Iran’s retaliation, Netanyahu was brazen enough to proclaim: “There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.” And then made it explicit that he meant a regime change operation in Iran: “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different.”
With the “civilised” West having allowed them complete impunity to carry out a live-streamed holocaust in Gaza and embark on a second one within a year in Lebanon, it’s pretty clear that the Israelis were confident they could further extend their criminality inside Iran. It made the Iranian response inevitable.
What happens next?
Iran has made it clear that if the Israelis strike again, it is ready to escalate things further. “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a day after the retaliatory strikes. “In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful. Israel’s enablers now have a heightened responsibility to rein in the warmongers in Tel Aviv instead of partaking in their folly.”
The warmongers in Israel, however, appear ready to escalate further. “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu told a meeting of his security cabinet. The US leadership is certainly showing no inclination to rein its mad dog in. US’s National security adviser Jake Sullivan has been talking “severe consequences” in conjunction with Israel. “We have made clear that there will be consequences, severe consequences,” he said. “We will work with Israel to make that the case.”
Whatever the Zionists and its Western allies throw at them, the Iranians have made it clear that they will hit Israel harder next time. In a rare Friday sermon on October 4, Khamenei declared that Iran’s “strategic patience is over.”
The USA’s Arab vassal states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait have declared their unwillingness to allow use of their bases for Israel’s further attacks on Iran. Giving access to their bases for strikes on Iran will open them for retaliatory strikes from the Persian state — it’s a risk none of them is willing to take. A lack of access to these bases will surely make striking Iran harder for the Zionists.
Iran also holds a major ace in the form of its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz — which provides passage for nearly a quarter of all the world’s oil supply and a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The blocking of the strait will be catastrophic for global oil prices and with the US presidential election just a month away, the Biden administration wouldn’t be willing to take the risk of this eventuality coming to pass. It will shoot up gas prices for which the American voters will lay the blame squarely on the Biden administration, potentially costing the Democrats the election (if they still have any chance, that is).
While messing with the global economy is an obvious move for Iran, it is not backing away from scorching the genocidal Zionist state again in retaliation, only this time with even more ferocity. “If the occupying entity makes a mistake, we will target all its energy sources, including power stations, refineries, and gas fields,” the deputy chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, told Al Mayadeen on Friday.
Considering no Israeli aggression can be completed without the support of the United States, it is easy to see the American naval assets becoming a target of Iranian firepower. The Yemeni resistance has already proved hugely damaging to American vessels in West Asian waters, the Iranian attacks, if any, will be even more incendiary.
The genocidal West and their Israeli outpost don’t look to be coming out of this faceoff in a good state. In such a scenario, it would be prudent for them to back off and end the genocide in Gaza and the ongoing ever-escalating massacres of Lebanese civilians, but morality and logic left the Western shores (if it had any to begin with) long ago. Now in its dotage with a protruding belly and sclerotic knees, all that the Western “civilisation” retains is an insatiable lust for West Asian oil and blood.
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Excellent analysis !! 👍
The only reason Israel can act with unchecked impunity is the western efforts at diverting Russian attention from the Middle East leaving Iran in a position of isolation . The Ukraine war has given Israel the only chance it will get to destroy Hezbollah which it appears fo have severely damaged and drag the US into a confrontation with Iran . This is long written about in academic circles in the USA . A 5 part division of Iran .
Hezbollah will recover . Its men on the ground will learn fast under the pressure of war . The old guard has been eliminated. A newer much more ruthless generation will have to emerge out of necessity of survival. The Israelis are reaping a more cruel and ruthless foe for the future . Iran has cards up its sleeve .
The critical factor few know about but the Americans have nightmares about is Irans ability to destroy the Abqaiq oil terminals . This is the single most lethal act to the global economy , that Iran can commit if pushed too hard . For that reason I believe we will see more theatre from Israel. Strikes in Iran that will be more cosmetic than substantial .